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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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