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"I will be sitting in this office by 2027," the Prime Minister stated, noting that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never any time off for prime ministers. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year starts, Starmer appears to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just a little a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the difficult end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues deluding themselves if they reckon his political fate are set to get better?

Internal Doubts

The grisly truth for the leader is that a significant number of his party members think he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "assessed at the next election", arguing nobody would take his five-year mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to replace leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I plan to lead us," he said.

The May Elections

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to protest, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, even if a his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to account for his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was understandably eager for things to change. He tried to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that this year would be different.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their first rocky year began to bear fruit.

• He vowed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core argument is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a while – calmer, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a bolder approach, with greater political clarity, more vigour, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political difficulty, should he consider a change of tack?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because governing is hard, but because he and his team have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting evident political risks as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be comfortable with these events seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "just do not have the complete details at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is likely to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also always been bubbling tension in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM denies he's pursuing that, but his new firmer pledge to integrate further with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will probably elicit protests that he is reneging on his vow never to try to reverse the decisions that followed Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to